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SamWest Blackboots vs Darajani Gogo — Super League 2018

SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
Unknown 27'
L. Ochieng 90+2'
V. Ombima 72'
10/6/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots40%
×Draw28%
Darajani Gogo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SamWest Blackboots
1.23
Darajani Gogo
1.05

SamWest Blackboots creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 72 away

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.18
Darajani Gogo
0.82

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.29
Darajani Gogo
1.28

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par
Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

Darajani Gogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw
69%
SamWest Blackboots or Darajani Gogo
72%
Draw or Darajani Gogo
60%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
18%
Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
71%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
35%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
13%
Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
65%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
28%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
56%
Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more
40%
level
28%
Darajani Gogo scores more
31%

SamWest Blackboots at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SamWest Blackboots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
72'
V. Ombima
90+2'
L. Ochieng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: SamWest Blackboots 1–2 Darajani Gogo

Darajani Gogo beat SamWest Blackboots 2-1 in Super League on October 6, 2024.

Goals: ? (27'), V. Ombima (72'), L. Ochieng (90+2').

The match was played at Vapor Field in Ngong.