Darajani Gogo 3–1 SamWest Blackboots

Darajani Gogo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SamWest Blackboots

I. Motanda 80'

V. Ombima 65', 50'

Unknown 60'

6/7/2025

Super League · Round 36Marist International University College Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Darajani Gogo41%

×Draw27%

SamWest Blackboots32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Darajani GogoExpected goals in this matchSamWest Blackboots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.16

Darajani Gogo

1.36

SamWest Blackboots

1.16

Darajani Gogo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

1.35

creates per match

1.42

0.90

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Darajani Gogo

1.35

SamWest Blackboots

1.42

allows per match

Darajani Gogo

0.90

SamWest Blackboots

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darajani Gogo ↓

SamWest Blackboots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Darajani Gogo or draw

68%

Darajani Gogo or SamWest Blackboots

73%

Draw or SamWest Blackboots

59%

Winning margin

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+

19%

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals

74%

Darajani Gogo 2+ goals

39%

Darajani Gogo 3+ goals

16%

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals

69%

SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals

32%

SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)

56%

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darajani Gogo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darajani Gogo attack 1.35 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Darajani Gogo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Darajani Gogo scores more

41%

level

27%

SamWest Blackboots scores more

32%

Darajani Gogo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Darajani Gogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

V. Ombima

60'

65'

V. Ombima

80'

I. Motanda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff