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SamWest Blackboots vs Coastal Heroes — Super League 2018

SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
10/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots51%
×Draw25%
Coastal Heroes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SamWest Blackboots
1.65
Coastal Heroes
1.05

SamWest Blackboots creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 72 away

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.18
Coastal Heroes
0.81

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.29
Coastal Heroes
2.11

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par
Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

Coastal Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw
76%
SamWest Blackboots or Coastal Heroes
75%
Draw or Coastal Heroes
49%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
27%
Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
81%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
49%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
23%
Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
65%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
28%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
68%
Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more
51%
level
25%
Coastal Heroes scores more
24%

SamWest Blackboots at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SamWest Blackboots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SamWest Blackboots vs Coastal Heroes

SamWest Blackboots beat Coastal Heroes 4-1 in Super League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Vapor Field in Ngong.