Coastal Heroes 0–1 SamWest Blackboots

Coastal Heroes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SamWest Blackboots

Unknown 28'

6/21/2025

Super League · Round 38Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Coastal Heroes42%

×Draw26%

SamWest Blackboots32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal HeroesExpected goals in this matchSamWest Blackboots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Coastal Heroes

1.46

SamWest Blackboots

1.23

Coastal Heroes creates 19% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

1.55

creates per match

1.42

1.04

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Coastal Heroes

1.55

SamWest Blackboots

1.42

allows per match

Coastal Heroes

1.04

SamWest Blackboots

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Heroes ↓

SamWest Blackboots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coastal Heroes or draw

68%

Coastal Heroes or SamWest Blackboots

74%

Draw or SamWest Blackboots

58%

Winning margin

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+

20%

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals

77%

Coastal Heroes 2+ goals

43%

Coastal Heroes 3+ goals

18%

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals

71%

SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals

35%

SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)

57%

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Heroes at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Heroes attack 1.55 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Coastal Heroes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Coastal Heroes scores more

42%

level

26%

SamWest Blackboots scores more

32%

Coastal Heroes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coastal Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff