Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SamWest Blackboots vs APS Bomet — Super League 2018

SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
APS Bomet
APS Bomet
Unknown 31'
E. Mwirigi 23'
D. Muhoro 13'
5/4/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Marist International University College Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SamWest Blackboots32%
×Draw30%
APS Bomet38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SamWest Blackboots
0.97
APS Bomet
1.10

APS Bomet creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 39 away

creates per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.18
APS Bomet
0.92

allows per match

SamWest Blackboots
1.29
APS Bomet
0.77

finishing

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par
APS Bomet+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SamWest Blackboots ↓

APS Bomet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SamWest Blackboots or draw
62%
SamWest Blackboots or APS Bomet
70%
Draw or APS Bomet
68%

Winning margin

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
12%
APS Bomet wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
62%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
25%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
7%
APS Bomet 1+ goals
67%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
30%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
45%
APS Bomet (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SamWest Blackboots at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

APS Bomet away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.18 + APS Bomet defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.97

APS Bomet attack 0.92 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SamWest Blackboots scores more
32%
level
30%
APS Bomet scores more
38%

APS Bomet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "APS Bomet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
D. Muhoro
23'
E. Mwirigi
31'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: SamWest Blackboots 1–2 APS Bomet

APS Bomet beat SamWest Blackboots 2-1 in Super League on May 4, 2025.

Goals: D. Muhoro (13'), E. Mwirigi (23'), ? (31').

The match was played at Marist International University College Stadium in Nairobi.