APS Bomet 1–0 SamWest Blackboots: Result & Stats

APS Bomet

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SamWest Blackboots

E. Mwirigi 31'

12/15/2024

Super League · Round 13Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

APS Bomet47%

×Draw27%

SamWest Blackboots27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APS BometExpected goals in this matchSamWest Blackboots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.00

APS Bomet

1.42

SamWest Blackboots

1.00

APS Bomet creates 42% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.47

creates per match

1.42

0.58

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

APS Bomet

1.47

SamWest Blackboots

1.42

allows per match

APS Bomet

0.58

SamWest Blackboots

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APS Bomet+0.00on par

SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APS Bomet ↓

SamWest Blackboots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

APS Bomet or draw

73%

APS Bomet or SamWest Blackboots

73%

Draw or SamWest Blackboots

53%

Winning margin

APS Bomet wins by 2+

23%

SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

APS Bomet 1+ goals

76%

APS Bomet 2+ goals

41%

APS Bomet 3+ goals

17%

SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals

63%

SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals

26%

SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

APS Bomet (draw refunded)

64%

SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APS Bomet at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.58 · 38 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APS Bomet attack 1.47 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + APS Bomet defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

APS Bomet scores more

47%

level

27%

SamWest Blackboots scores more

27%

APS Bomet at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "APS Bomet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

E. Mwirigi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff