Samut Sakhon FC 0–6 Ranong United: Result & Stats

Samut Sakhon FC

FT

0 – 6

Ranong United

2/10/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 20Ratchakram Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC36%

×Draw24%

Ranong United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Samut Sakhon FCExpected goals in this matchRanong United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.54

Samut Sakhon FC

1.47

Ranong United

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 51 away

1.21

creates per match

0.84

2.25

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC

1.21

Ranong United

0.84

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC

2.25

Ranong United

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Ranong United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Ranong United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw

61%

Samut Sakhon FC or Ranong United

76%

Draw or Ranong United

64%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+

17%

Ranong United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals

77%

Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals

43%

Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals

18%

Ranong United 1+ goals

79%

Ranong United 2+ goals

45%

Ranong United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)

48%

Ranong United (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Ranong United away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Ranong United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ranong United attack 0.84 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more

36%

level

24%

Ranong United scores more

39%

Ranong United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ranong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff