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Ranong United vs Samut Sakhon FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ranong United
Ranong United
FT
2 – 1
Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
3/1/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Ranong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Ranong United58%
×Draw22%
Samut Sakhon FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranong United
1.97
Samut Sakhon FC
1.07

Ranong United creates 84% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ranong United
1.27
Samut Sakhon FC
0.92

allows per match

Ranong United
1.22
Samut Sakhon FC
2.67

finishing

Ranong United+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranong United ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ranong United or draw
80%
Ranong United or Samut Sakhon FC
78%
Draw or Samut Sakhon FC
42%

Winning margin

Ranong United wins by 2+
34%
Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ranong United 1+ goals
86%
Ranong United 2+ goals
58%
Ranong United 3+ goals
31%
Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
66%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
29%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ranong United (draw refunded)
74%
Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranong United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranong United attack 1.27 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.97

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + Ranong United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ranong United scores more
58%
level
22%
Samut Sakhon FC scores more
20%

Ranong United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ranong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ranong United vs Samut Sakhon FC

Ranong United beat Samut Sakhon FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Ranong Stadium in Ranong.