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Samut Sakhon FC vs Navy FC — Thai League 2 2018

Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
FT
1 – 1
Navy FC
Navy FC
2/26/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 3Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC38%
×Draw23%
Navy FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon FC
1.64
Navy FC
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 51 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC
1.21
Navy FC
1.02

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC
2.25
Navy FC
2.06

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par
Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Navy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw
62%
Samut Sakhon FC or Navy FC
77%
Draw or Navy FC
62%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
19%
Navy FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
81%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
49%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
23%
Navy FC 1+ goals
81%
Navy FC 2+ goals
49%
Navy FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
50%
Navy FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.64

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more
38%
level
23%
Navy FC scores more
38%

Samut Sakhon FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Samut Sakhon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Samut Sakhon FC 1–1 Navy FC

Samut Sakhon FC and Navy FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on February 26, 2020.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium in Samut Sakhon.