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Navy FC vs Samut Sakhon FC — Thai League 2 2018

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
0 – 1
Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
2/10/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 1Sattahip Stadium (Sattahip)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Navy FC55%
×Draw22%
Samut Sakhon FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
1.90
Samut Sakhon FC
1.14

Navy FC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

creates per match

Navy FC
1.14
Samut Sakhon FC
0.92

allows per match

Navy FC
1.35
Samut Sakhon FC
2.67

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
77%
Navy FC or Samut Sakhon FC
78%
Draw or Samut Sakhon FC
45%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
32%
Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
85%
Navy FC 2+ goals
56%
Navy FC 3+ goals
29%
Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
68%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
32%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
71%
Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Navy FC scores more
55%
level
22%
Samut Sakhon FC scores more
23%

Navy FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Navy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Navy FC 0–1 Samut Sakhon FC

Samut Sakhon FC beat Navy FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium (Sattahip).