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Samut Sakhon FC vs BG Pathum United — Thai League 2 2018

Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
FT
0 – 3
BG Pathum United
BG Pathum United
8/10/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 25Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC20%
×Draw21%
BG Pathum United59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon FC
1.14
BG Pathum United
2.09

BG Pathum United creates 83% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC
1.21
BG Pathum United
1.94

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC
2.25
BG Pathum United
1.06

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par
BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

BG Pathum United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw
41%
Samut Sakhon FC or BG Pathum United
79%
Draw or BG Pathum United
80%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
8%
BG Pathum United wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
68%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
32%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
11%
BG Pathum United 1+ goals
88%
BG Pathum United 2+ goals
62%
BG Pathum United 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
26%
BG Pathum United (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + BG Pathum United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

BG Pathum United attack 1.94 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more
20%
level
21%
BG Pathum United scores more
59%

BG Pathum United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Samut Sakhon FC 0–3 BG Pathum United

BG Pathum United beat Samut Sakhon FC 3-0 in Thai League 2 on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon).