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BG Pathum United vs Samut Sakhon FC — Thai League 2 2018

BG Pathum United
BG Pathum United
FT
6 – 1
Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
4/7/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 9LEO Stadium (Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

BG Pathum United77%
×Draw15%
Samut Sakhon FC8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BG Pathum United
2.60
Samut Sakhon FC
0.73

BG Pathum United creates 256% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

creates per match

BG Pathum United
2.53
Samut Sakhon FC
0.92

allows per match

BG Pathum United
0.53
Samut Sakhon FC
2.67

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw
92%
BG Pathum United or Samut Sakhon FC
85%
Draw or Samut Sakhon FC
23%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+
55%
Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals
92%
BG Pathum United 2+ goals
73%
BG Pathum United 3+ goals
47%
Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
52%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
17%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)
90%
Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 2.53 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.60

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + BG Pathum United defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

BG Pathum United scores more
77%
level
15%
Samut Sakhon FC scores more
8%

BG Pathum United at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BG Pathum United vs Samut Sakhon FC

BG Pathum United beat Samut Sakhon FC 6-1 in Thai League 2 on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at LEO Stadium (Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani).