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Samtse vs RTC — Premier League 2023

Samtse
Samtse
FT
0 – 10
HT: 0 – 3
RTC
RTC
6/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonSamtse Dzongkhag Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Samtse24%
×Draw18%
RTC59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtse
1.83
RTC
2.90

RTC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

creates per match

Samtse
2.22
RTC
2.13

allows per match

Samtse
3.67
RTC
1.45

finishing

Samtse+0.00on par
RTC+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtse ↓

RTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Samtse or draw
41%
Samtse or RTC
82%
Draw or RTC
76%

Winning margin

Samtse wins by 2+
11%
RTC wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Samtse 1+ goals
84%
Samtse 2+ goals
54%
Samtse 3+ goals
28%
RTC 1+ goals
94%
RTC 2+ goals
78%
RTC 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Samtse (draw refunded)
28%
RTC (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtse at home — creates 2.22, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

RTC away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtse attack 2.22 + RTC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.83

RTC attack 2.13 + Samtse defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Samtse scores more
24%
level
18%
RTC scores more
59%

RTC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samtse vs RTC

RTC beat Samtse 10-0 in Premier League on June 26, 2025.

The match was played at Samtse Dzongkhag Ground in Samtse.