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RTC vs Samtse — Premier League 2023

RTC
RTC
FT
12 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Samtse
Samtse
9/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Regular SeasonRTC Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

RTC78%
×Draw13%
Samtse10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RTC
3.33
Samtse
1.16

RTC creates 187% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

creates per match

RTC
2.66
Samtse
1.28

allows per match

RTC
1.03
Samtse
4.00

finishing

RTC+0.00on par
Samtse+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RTC ↓

Samtse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

RTC or draw
90%
RTC or Samtse
87%
Draw or Samtse
22%

Winning margin

RTC wins by 2+
59%
Samtse wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

RTC 1+ goals
96%
RTC 2+ goals
84%
RTC 3+ goals
63%
Samtse 1+ goals
69%
Samtse 2+ goals
32%
Samtse 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RTC (draw refunded)
89%
Samtse (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RTC at home — creates 2.66, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Samtse away — creates 1.28, concedes 4.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RTC attack 2.66 + Samtse defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.33

Samtse attack 1.28 + RTC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

RTC scores more
78%
level
13%
Samtse scores more
10%

RTC at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: RTC 12–1 Samtse

RTC beat Samtse 12-1 in Premier League on September 25, 2025.

The match was played at RTC Football Ground in Thimphu.