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Samtse vs Phuntsholing Heroes — Premier League 2023

Samtse
Samtse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
10/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Samtse Dzongkhag Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Samtse39%
×Draw20%
Phuntsholing Heroes41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtse
2.17
Phuntsholing Heroes
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Samtse
2.22
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.78

allows per match

Samtse
3.67
Phuntsholing Heroes
2.11

finishing

Samtse+0.00on par
Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtse ↓

Phuntsholing Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Samtse or draw
59%
Samtse or Phuntsholing Heroes
80%
Draw or Phuntsholing Heroes
61%

Winning margin

Samtse wins by 2+
22%
Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Samtse 1+ goals
89%
Samtse 2+ goals
64%
Samtse 3+ goals
36%
Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
89%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
65%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Samtse (draw refunded)
49%
Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtse at home — creates 2.22, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

Phuntsholing Heroes away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtse attack 2.22 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.17

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 0.78 + Samtse defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Samtse scores more
39%
level
20%
Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
41%

Phuntsholing Heroes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Phuntsholing Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Samtse 1–0 Phuntsholing Heroes

Samtse beat Phuntsholing Heroes 1-0 in Premier League on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at Samtse Dzongkhag Ground in Samtse.