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Phuntsholing Heroes vs Samtse — Premier League 2023

Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Samtse
Samtse
7/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4PSA Phuentsholing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phuntsholing Heroes48%
×Draw18%
Samtse34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phuntsholing Heroes
3.00
Samtse
2.53

Phuntsholing Heroes creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
2.00
Samtse
1.28

allows per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
3.78
Samtse
4.00

finishing

Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par
Samtse+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phuntsholing Heroes ↓

Samtse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Phuntsholing Heroes or draw
66%
Phuntsholing Heroes or Samtse
82%
Draw or Samtse
52%

Winning margin

Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
31%
Samtse wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
95%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
79%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
56%
Samtse 1+ goals
92%
Samtse 2+ goals
71%
Samtse 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
59%
Samtse (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phuntsholing Heroes at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Samtse away — creates 1.28, concedes 4.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 2.00 + Samtse defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Samtse attack 1.28 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
48%
level
18%
Samtse scores more
34%

Phuntsholing Heroes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Phuntsholing Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phuntsholing Heroes vs Samtse

Samtse beat Phuntsholing Heroes 5-2 in Premier League on July 2, 2024.

The match was played at PSA Phuentsholing Stadium in Phuentsholing.