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Samtse vs Daga United — Premier League 2023

Samtse
Samtse
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Daga United
Daga United
6/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Samtse Dzongkhag Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Samtse55%
×Draw17%
Daga United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtse
3.28
Daga United
2.39

Samtse creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Samtse
2.22
Daga United
1.11

allows per match

Samtse
3.67
Daga United
4.33

finishing

Samtse+0.00on par
Daga United+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtse ↓

Daga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Samtse or draw
72%
Samtse or Daga United
83%
Draw or Daga United
45%

Winning margin

Samtse wins by 2+
37%
Daga United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Samtse 1+ goals
96%
Samtse 2+ goals
83%
Samtse 3+ goals
62%
Daga United 1+ goals
91%
Daga United 2+ goals
69%
Daga United 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Samtse (draw refunded)
66%
Daga United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtse at home — creates 2.22, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

Daga United away — creates 1.11, concedes 4.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtse attack 2.22 + Daga United defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.28

Daga United attack 1.11 + Samtse defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Samtse scores more
55%
level
17%
Daga United scores more
28%

Samtse at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Samtse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samtse vs Daga United

Samtse beat Daga United 6-1 in Premier League on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at Samtse Dzongkhag Ground in Samtse.