Daga United 2–4 Samtse: Result & Stats

Daga United

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Samtse

8/12/2024

Premier League · Round 7Dagapela Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daga United44%

×Draw18%

Samtse38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daga UnitedExpected goals in this matchSamtse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

2.53

Daga United

2.72

Samtse

2.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.44

creates per match

1.28

3.78

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Daga United

1.44

Samtse

1.28

allows per match

Daga United

3.78

Samtse

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daga United+0.00on par

Samtse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daga United ↓

Samtse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Daga United or draw

62%

Daga United or Samtse

82%

Draw or Samtse

56%

Winning margin

Daga United wins by 2+

27%

Samtse wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Daga United 1+ goals

93%

Daga United 2+ goals

75%

Daga United 3+ goals

50%

Samtse 1+ goals

92%

Samtse 2+ goals

71%

Samtse 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Daga United (draw refunded)

54%

Samtse (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daga United at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Samtse away — creates 1.28, concedes 4.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daga United attack 1.44 + Samtse defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.72

Samtse attack 1.28 + Daga United defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Daga United scores more

44%

level

18%

Samtse scores more

38%

Daga United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Daga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff