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Samtredia vs Dinamo Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
CANC
11:00
Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
9/9/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Samtredia58%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Zugdidi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.96
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.07

Samtredia creates 83% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 25 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.71
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.16

allows per match

Samtredia
0.98
Dinamo Zugdidi
2.20

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Dinamo Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
80%
Samtredia or Dinamo Zugdidi
78%
Draw or Dinamo Zugdidi
42%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
34%
Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
86%
Samtredia 2+ goals
58%
Samtredia 3+ goals
31%
Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
74%
Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Dinamo Zugdidi away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.16 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Samtredia scores more
58%
level
22%
Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
20%

Samtredia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Samtredia vs Dinamo Zugdidi — Match Preview

Samtredia face Dinamo Zugdidi on September 9, 2022 in this Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.