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Dinamo Zugdidi vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
CANC
10:00
Samtredia
Samtredia
10/30/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Zugdidi41%
×Draw25%
Samtredia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.46
Samtredia
1.29

Dinamo Zugdidi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 57 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.58
Samtredia
1.16

allows per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.42
Samtredia
1.33

finishing

Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zugdidi ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Zugdidi or draw
67%
Dinamo Zugdidi or Samtredia
75%
Draw or Samtredia
59%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
20%
Samtredia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
18%
Samtredia 1+ goals
72%
Samtredia 2+ goals
37%
Samtredia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
55%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zugdidi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.33 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.58 + Samtredia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Samtredia attack 1.16 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
41%
level
25%
Samtredia scores more
33%

Dinamo Zugdidi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Zugdidi vs Samtredia — Match Preview

Dinamo Zugdidi face Samtredia on October 30, 2022 in this Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.