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Samtredia vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
7/9/2020Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 3Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Samtredia40%
×Draw27%
Chikhura Sachkhere33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.33
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.19

Samtredia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 28 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.09
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.93

allows per match

Samtredia
1.44
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.57

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
67%
Samtredia or Chikhura Sachkhere
73%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
60%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
18%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
74%
Samtredia 2+ goals
38%
Samtredia 3+ goals
15%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
70%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
33%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
55%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.09 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.93 + Samtredia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Samtredia scores more
40%
level
27%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
33%

Samtredia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Samtredia 0–0 Chikhura Sachkhere

Samtredia and Chikhura Sachkhere drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga on July 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze in Samtredia.