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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Samtredia
Samtredia
10/25/2020Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 7Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere47%
×Draw24%
Samtredia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.71
Samtredia
1.29

Chikhura Sachkhere creates 33% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 64 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.43
Samtredia
1.03

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.54
Samtredia
2.00

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
71%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Samtredia
76%
Draw or Samtredia
53%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
25%
Samtredia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
82%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
51%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
24%
Samtredia 1+ goals
72%
Samtredia 2+ goals
37%
Samtredia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
62%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.43 + Samtredia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Samtredia attack 1.03 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
47%
level
24%
Samtredia scores more
29%

Chikhura Sachkhere at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chikhura Sachkhere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Chikhura Sachkhere 0–1 Samtredia

Samtredia beat Chikhura Sachkhere 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni in Tbilisi.