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Samsunspor vs Göztepe — 1. Lig 2018

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Göztepe
Göztepe
11/6/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 12Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Samsunspor44%
×Draw27%
Göztepe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
1.40
Göztepe
1.11

Samsunspor creates 26% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 36 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
1.93
Göztepe
1.33

allows per match

Samsunspor
0.89
Göztepe
0.86

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par
Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
70%
Samsunspor or Göztepe
73%
Draw or Göztepe
56%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
21%
Göztepe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
75%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
41%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
17%
Göztepe 1+ goals
67%
Göztepe 2+ goals
30%
Göztepe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
59%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.93 + Göztepe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

Göztepe attack 1.33 + Samsunspor defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Samsunspor scores more
44%
level
27%
Göztepe scores more
30%

Samsunspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Samsunspor 1–0 Göztepe

Samsunspor beat Göztepe 1-0 in 1. Lig on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Samsun.