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Göztepe vs Samsunspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Samsunspor
Samsunspor
12/29/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Göztepe55%
×Draw22%
Samsunspor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.94
Samsunspor
1.16

Göztepe creates 67% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Göztepe
2.54
Samsunspor
2.00

allows per match

Göztepe
0.31
Samsunspor
1.33

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Samsunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Samsunspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
77%
Göztepe or Samsunspor
78%
Draw or Samsunspor
45%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
32%
Samsunspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
86%
Göztepe 2+ goals
58%
Göztepe 3+ goals
30%
Samsunspor 1+ goals
69%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
32%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
71%
Samsunspor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Samsunspor away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.54 + Samsunspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.94

Samsunspor attack 2.00 + Göztepe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Göztepe scores more
55%
level
22%
Samsunspor scores more
23%

Göztepe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Samsunspor

Göztepe beat Samsunspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 29, 2021.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.