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Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük — League #203 2026

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
A. Musaba 90'
C. Ndiaye 54'
A. Cinar 52' (OG)
D. D. Fofana 81'
L. Satka 31' (OG)
9/21/2025League #203League #203 · Round 6Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Samsunspor55%
×Draw23%
Fatih Karagümrük23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
1.86
Fatih Karagümrük
1.11

Samsunspor creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
1.46
Fatih Karagümrük
1.00

allows per match

Samsunspor
1.23
Fatih Karagümrük
2.27

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
77%
Samsunspor or Fatih Karagümrük
77%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
45%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
31%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
84%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
55%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
28%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
67%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
30%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
71%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.46 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.86

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.00 + Samsunspor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Samsunspor scores more
55%
level
23%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
23%

Samsunspor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
A. MusabaSamsunsporSamsunspor · M
8.3

Match Events

17'
Tiago Çukur
31'
L. SatkaOwn goal
49'
Yunus Emre Çift
52'
A. CinarOwn goal
54'
C. Ndiaye↳ C. Holse
57'
S. Larsson← M. Doh
66'
Marius← C. Ndiaye
68'
D. D. Fofana← A. Gray
68'
B. Kalayci← B. Ozcan
70'
C. Yuksel← T. Coulibaly
77'
Anthony Musaba
77'
Ricardo Esgaio
81'
D. D. Fofana↳ S. Larsson
87'
A. Makoumbou← Y. E. Cift
87'
J. Mendes← Z. Yavru
89'
N. Ugrekhelidze← A. Cinar
89'
J. Camacho← Serginho
90'
A. Musaba↳ L. Tomasson

Possession

49%Samsunspor

Shots

14Samsunspor

Pass accuracy

50%Samsunspor

Statistics

SamsunsporFatih
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots11
1.91Expected Goals (xG)0.58
6Corners5
16Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots11
5On Target3
7Off Target5
2Blocked3
9Inside Box4
5Outside Box7
Passing
49%Possession51%
352Total Passes363
275Accurate Passes281
78%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
-0.18Goals Prevented-0.18
Discipline
16Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük

Samsunspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 in League #203 on September 21, 2025.

Goals: L. Satka (31' o.g.), A. Cinar (52' o.g.), C. Ndiaye (54'), D. D. Fofana (81'), A. Musaba (90').

Fatih Karagümrük controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Samsun.