Samsunspor 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük: Result & Stats

Samsunspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fatih Karagümrük

E. Kara 84'

1/6/2024

League #203 · Round 19Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Samsunspor60%

×Draw24%

Fatih Karagümrük16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamsunsporExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.76

Samsunspor

1.70

Fatih Karagümrük

0.76

Samsunspor creates 124% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

0.47

1.05

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Samsunspor

1.33

Fatih Karagümrük

0.47

allows per match

Samsunspor

1.05

Fatih Karagümrük

2.07

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Samsunspor+0.13scores more

Fatih Karagümrük+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw

84%

Samsunspor or Fatih Karagümrük

76%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

40%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+

34%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals

82%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

51%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

24%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

53%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

18%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

78%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 13 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.07 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.33 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.70

Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.47 + Samsunspor defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Samsunspor scores more

60%

level

24%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

16%

Samsunspor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

E. Kara

Samsunspor · F

7.7

Match Events

16'

Marius Mouandilmadji

24'

Valentin Eysseric

30'

Taylan Antalyalı

46'

E. Kara← M. Mouandilmadji

51'

F. Veseli← F. Ceccherini

59'

F. Tait← T. Antalyalı

59'

M. Fofana← L. Dimata

64'

Can Keleş

67'

Serdar Dursun← K. Lasagna

75'

75'

83'

84'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SamsunsporFatih

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots7

1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.27

3Corners5

22Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target1

4Off Target4

5Blocked2

7Inside Box2

6Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

353Total Passes430

248Accurate Passes323

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2