Samsunspor 3–1 Ankaraspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Samsunspor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ankaraspor

5/1/2021

1. Lig · Round 33Samsun 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Samsunspor53%

×Draw24%

Ankaraspor22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamsunsporExpected goals in this matchAnkaraspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.00

Samsunspor

1.69

Ankaraspor

1.00

Samsunspor creates 69% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 52 away

1.93

creates per match

1.10

0.89

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Samsunspor

1.93

Ankaraspor

1.10

allows per match

Samsunspor

0.89

Ankaraspor

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par

Ankaraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Ankaraspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw

78%

Samsunspor or Ankaraspor

76%

Draw or Ankaraspor

47%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+

29%

Ankaraspor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals

82%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

50%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

24%

Ankaraspor 1+ goals

63%

Ankaraspor 2+ goals

26%

Ankaraspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

71%

Ankaraspor (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

Ankaraspor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.93 + Ankaraspor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ankaraspor attack 1.10 + Samsunspor defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Samsunspor scores more

53%

level

24%

Ankaraspor scores more

22%

Samsunspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff