Ankaraspor 1–2 Samsunspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Ankaraspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Samsunspor

12/27/2020

1. Lig · Round 16Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ankaraspor32%

×Draw26%

Samsunspor41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkarasporExpected goals in this matchSamsunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.39

Ankaraspor

1.20

Samsunspor

1.39

Samsunspor creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.29

creates per match

1.42

1.35

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Ankaraspor

1.29

Samsunspor

1.42

allows per match

Ankaraspor

1.35

Samsunspor

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaraspor+0.00on par

Samsunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaraspor ↓

Samsunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ankaraspor or draw

59%

Ankaraspor or Samsunspor

74%

Draw or Samsunspor

68%

Winning margin

Ankaraspor wins by 2+

13%

Samsunspor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ankaraspor 1+ goals

70%

Ankaraspor 2+ goals

34%

Ankaraspor 3+ goals

12%

Samsunspor 1+ goals

75%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

40%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ankaraspor (draw refunded)

44%

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaraspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Samsunspor away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaraspor attack 1.29 + Samsunspor defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Samsunspor attack 1.42 + Ankaraspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ankaraspor scores more

32%

level

26%

Samsunspor scores more

41%

Samsunspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff