Samsunspor 4–0 Adanaspor: Result & Stats

Samsunspor

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Adanaspor

11/9/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundSamsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Samsunspor90%

×Draw7%

Adanaspor3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamsunsporExpected goals in this matchAdanaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.52

0.54

Samsunspor

3.52

Adanaspor

0.54

Samsunspor creates 552% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.44

creates per match

0.40

0.67

allows per match

4.60

creates per match

Samsunspor

2.44

Adanaspor

0.40

allows per match

Samsunspor

0.67

Adanaspor

4.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Adanaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw

97%

Samsunspor or Adanaspor

93%

Draw or Adanaspor

10%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+

75%

Adanaspor wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals

97%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

86%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

66%

Adanaspor 1+ goals

42%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

10%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

97%

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.40, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 2.44 + Adanaspor defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 3.52

Adanaspor attack 0.40 + Samsunspor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Samsunspor scores more

90%

level

7%

Adanaspor scores more

3%

Samsunspor at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff