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Samsunspor vs Adanaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Adanaspor
Adanaspor
11/27/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 14Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Samsunspor58%
×Draw23%
Adanaspor19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
1.77
Adanaspor
0.89

Samsunspor creates 99% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 117 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
1.93
Adanaspor
0.89

allows per match

Samsunspor
0.89
Adanaspor
1.62

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par
Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Adanaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
81%
Samsunspor or Adanaspor
77%
Draw or Adanaspor
42%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
33%
Adanaspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
83%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
53%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
26%
Adanaspor 1+ goals
59%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
22%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
76%
Adanaspor (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.93 + Adanaspor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + Samsunspor defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Samsunspor scores more
58%
level
23%
Adanaspor scores more
19%

Samsunspor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Samsunspor 1–0 Adanaspor

Samsunspor beat Adanaspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Samsun.