Sampdoria 1–0 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sampdoria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mantova

P. Kasami 61'

10/27/2024

Serie B · Round 10Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sampdoria45%

×Draw27%

Mantova28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.04

Sampdoria

1.39

Mantova

1.04

Sampdoria creates 34% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 38 away

1.07

creates per match

1.05

1.03

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.07

Mantova

1.05

allows per match

Sampdoria

1.03

Mantova

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Mantova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

72%

Sampdoria or Mantova

73%

Draw or Mantova

55%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

21%

Mantova wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

75%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

40%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

16%

Mantova 1+ goals

65%

Mantova 2+ goals

28%

Mantova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

61%

Mantova (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.07 + Mantova defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mantova attack 1.05 + Sampdoria defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sampdoria scores more

45%

level

27%

Mantova scores more

28%

Sampdoria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Vismara

Sampdoria · G

8.3

Match Events

8'

Alex Redolfi

18'

Lorenzo Venuti

46'

E. Akinsanmiro← L. Benedetti

46'

F. Depaoli← L. Venuti

58'

Salvatore Burrai

61'

P. Kasami↳ G. Tutino

62'

M. Aramu← D. Wieser

62'

L. Mancuso← A. Debenedetti

72'

A. Bellemo← P. Kasami

74'

F. Galuppini← D. Bragantini

74'

G. Fedel← T. Maggioni

82'

N. Sekulov← M. Coda

83'

S. Giordano← N. Ioannou

83'

A. Fiori← F. Ruocco

88'

Francesco Galuppini

90+1'

Alessandro Pio Riccio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampdoriaMantova

Overview

30%Possession70%

20Total Shots11

3Corners5

19Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots11

7On Target5

9Off Target2

4Blocked4

17Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

30%Possession70%

258Total Passes617

189Accurate Passes553

73%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

19Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

6Offsides0

Serie B: Sampdoria 1–0 Mantova

Sampdoria beat Mantova 1-0 in Serie B on October 27, 2024.

Goals: P. Kasami (61').

Mantova controlled possession (70%) and registered 11 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.

Sampdoria vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sampdoria 1–0 Mantova