Mantova 2–2 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sampdoria

S. Trimboli 53'

L. Mancuso 50'

F. Depaoli 24', 22'

1/25/2025

Serie B · Round 23Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mantova43%

×Draw26%

Sampdoria31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.20

Mantova

1.45

Sampdoria

1.20

Mantova creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 58 away

1.37

creates per match

1.14

1.26

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Mantova

1.37

Sampdoria

1.14

allows per match

Mantova

1.26

Sampdoria

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mantova+0.00on par

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

69%

Mantova or Sampdoria

74%

Draw or Sampdoria

57%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

21%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

77%

Mantova 2+ goals

42%

Mantova 3+ goals

18%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

70%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

34%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

58%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Mantova defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mantova scores more

43%

level

26%

Sampdoria scores more

31%

Mantova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

F. Depaoli

Sampdoria · M

8.5

Match Events

9'

Lorenzo Venuti

22'

F. Depaoli↳ D. Veroli

24'

F. Depaoli

45+1'

Alessandro Bellemo

46'

P. Vismara← S. Ghidotti

47'

Salvatore Burrai

50'

L. Mancuso↳ D. Mensah

51'

Marco Curto

53'

S. Trimboli

62'

A. Fiori← T. Maggioni

63'

S. De Maio← A. Redolfi

63'

N. Radaelli← F. Ruocco

64'

R. Vieira← A. Bellemo

65'

R. Oudin← L. Venuti

66'

Pietro Beruatto

70'

A. Debenedetti← D. Mensah

70'

F. Galuppini← D. Bragantini

80'

N. Ioannou← P. Beruatto

86'

M. Coda← M. Niang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaSampdoria

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots13

1Corners2

17Fouls26

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target5

4Off Target7

2Blocked1

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

523Total Passes273

446Accurate Passes188

85%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls26

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Serie B: Mantova 2–2 Sampdoria

Mantova and Sampdoria drew 2-2 in Serie B on January 25, 2025.

Goals: F. Depaoli (22', 24'), L. Mancuso (50'), S. Trimboli (53').

Mantova controlled possession (65%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Sampdoria — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mantova 2–2 Sampdoria