Sampdoria 2–1 Avellino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sampdoria

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Avellino

M. Palma 80'

M. Brunori 72'

T. Biasci 84'

3/22/2026

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sampdoria55%

×Draw27%

Avellino18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.69

Sampdoria

1.42

Avellino

0.69

Sampdoria creates 106% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.19

creates per match

0.43

0.96

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.19

Avellino

0.43

allows per match

Sampdoria

0.96

Avellino

1.66

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria+0.06on par

Avellino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

82%

Sampdoria or Avellino

73%

Draw or Avellino

45%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

27%

Avellino wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

76%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

41%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

17%

Avellino 1+ goals

50%

Avellino 2+ goals

15%

Avellino 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

75%

Avellino (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 8 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.66 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.19 + Avellino defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Avellino attack 0.43 + Sampdoria defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sampdoria scores more

55%

level

27%

Avellino scores more

18%

Sampdoria at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Palma

Sampdoria · D

8.0

Match Events

26'

32'

42'

45'

46'

L. Cherubini← S. Pafundi

46'

T. Biasci← L. Pandolfi

53'

Matteo BrunoriPenalty cancelled

64'

72'

74'

75'

77'

L. D'Andrea← M. Besaggio

78'

A. Le Borgne← L. Palmiero

78'

G. Tutino← M. Palumbo

80'

M. Palma↳ N. Pierini

83'

L. Henderson← F. Conti

84'

T. Biasci↳ M. Sala

88'

Raffaele Russo

90+3'

Simone Giordano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampdoriaAvellino

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots3

0.53Expected Goals (xG)0.32

9Corners3

16Fouls26

Shots

10Total Shots3

5On Target2

3Off Target1

2Blocked0

6Inside Box3

4Outside Box0

Passing

47%Possession53%

283Total Passes331

204Accurate Passes246

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.67Goals Prevented-0.67

Discipline

16Fouls26

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Sampdoria vs Avellino

Sampdoria beat Avellino 2-1 in Serie B on March 22, 2026.

Goals: M. Brunori (72'), M. Palma (80'), T. Biasci (84').

Avellino controlled possession (53%) and registered 3 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa.

Sampdoria vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sampdoria vs Avellino