Avellino 2–1 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sampdoria

G. Tutino 51'

M. Palumbo 31'

M. Coda 85' (pen)

1/10/2026

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Avellino40%

×Draw27%

Sampdoria33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

Avellino

1.33

Sampdoria

1.19

Avellino creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.36

creates per match

0.94

1.44

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Avellino

1.36

Sampdoria

0.94

allows per match

Avellino

1.44

Sampdoria

1.30

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Avellino-0.09on par

Sampdoria-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

67%

Avellino or Sampdoria

73%

Draw or Sampdoria

60%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

18%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

74%

Avellino 2+ goals

38%

Avellino 3+ goals

15%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

70%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

33%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

55%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.36 + Sampdoria defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sampdoria attack 0.94 + Avellino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avellino scores more

40%

level

27%

Sampdoria scores more

33%

Avellino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

G. Daffara

Avellino · G

8.2

Match Events

22'

Francesco Conti

31'

M. Palumbo↳ T. Biasci

44'

Alessandro Fontanarosa

46'

S. Esposito← F. Conti

51'

G. Tutino↳ T. Biasci

53'

Antonín Barák

59'

S. Pafundi← A. Barak

59'

S. Giordano← A. Ferrari

60'

C. Patierno← T. Biasci

60'

P. Enrici← A. Fontanarosa

65'

D. Sounas← M. Besaggio

65'

A. Favilli← G. Tutino

76'

T. Begic← M. Brunori

76'

N. Ioannou← F. Depaoli

77'

Nicholas Ioannou

82'

Luigi CherubiniPenalty confirmed

85'

M. CodaPenalty

86'

M. Armellino← L. Palmiero

90+6'

Martin Palumbo

90'

Francesco Patierno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoSampdoria

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots21

1.02Expected Goals (xG)1.90

5Corners2

15Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots21

3On Target5

2Off Target11

2Blocked5

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box13

Passing

49%Possession51%

410Total Passes416

314Accurate Passes342

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2