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Sampdoria U20 vs Monza U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sampdoria U20
Sampdoria U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Monza U20
Monza U20
2/7/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 24Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sampdoria U2037%
×Draw24%
Monza U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria U20
1.55
Monza U20
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sampdoria U20
1.42
Monza U20
1.26

allows per match

Sampdoria U20
1.95
Monza U20
1.68

finishing

Sampdoria U20+0.00on par
Monza U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U20 ↓

Monza U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sampdoria U20 or draw
61%
Sampdoria U20 or Monza U20
76%
Draw or Monza U20
63%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U20 wins by 2+
18%
Monza U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sampdoria U20 1+ goals
79%
Sampdoria U20 2+ goals
46%
Sampdoria U20 3+ goals
20%
Monza U20 1+ goals
80%
Monza U20 2+ goals
47%
Monza U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Monza U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Monza U20 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U20 attack 1.42 + Monza U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.55

Monza U20 attack 1.26 + Sampdoria U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sampdoria U20 scores more
37%
level
24%
Monza U20 scores more
39%

Monza U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Sampdoria U20 2–3 Monza U20

Monza U20 beat Sampdoria U20 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on February 7, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili in Bogliasco.