Monza U20 2–2 Sampdoria U20: Result & Stats

Monza U20

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sampdoria U20

S. Domanico 90+3' (pen)

J. Longhi 43'

G. Forte 90+4'

S. Leonardi 47'

8/30/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 3Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Monza U2050%

×Draw24%

Sampdoria U2026%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monza U20Expected goals in this matchSampdoria U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.17

Monza U20

1.72

Sampdoria U20

1.17

Monza U20 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.39

creates per match

0.95

1.39

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Monza U20

1.39

Sampdoria U20

0.95

allows per match

Monza U20

1.39

Sampdoria U20

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par

Sampdoria U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Sampdoria U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw

74%

Monza U20 or Sampdoria U20

76%

Draw or Sampdoria U20

50%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+

27%

Sampdoria U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals

82%

Monza U20 2+ goals

51%

Monza U20 3+ goals

25%

Sampdoria U20 1+ goals

69%

Sampdoria U20 2+ goals

33%

Sampdoria U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Sampdoria U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Sampdoria U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Sampdoria U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sampdoria U20 attack 0.95 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Monza U20 scores more

50%

level

24%

Sampdoria U20 scores more

26%

Monza U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

S. Leonardi

29'

C. Ofoma

43'

J. Longhi

46'

T. Lupinetti← E. Zanaboni

47'

S. Leonardi

56'

G. Forte← G. Ofoma

60'

S. Nenè← L. Colombo

60'

A. Bagnaschi← M. Crasta

62'

A. Ovalle Santos

64'

A. Ovalle Santos

67'

M. Gioannini← Thiago

74'

E. Scaramelli← J. Longhi

76'

G. Patrignani← Issa Boiro

79'

T. Lupinetti

90+3'

S. DomanicoPenalty

90+4'

G. Forte

Monza

Sampdoria

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: O. Brevi

46'▲T. Lupinetti←▼E. Zanaboni

60'▲S. Nenè←▼L. Colombo

60'▲A. Bagnaschi←▼M. Crasta

74'▲E. Scaramelli←▼J. Longhi

Monza U20 substitutes

LupinettiNenèBagnaschiScaramelli

Manager: A. Lupi

56'▲G. Forte←▼G. Ofoma

67'▲M. Gioannini←▼Thiago

76'▲G. Patrignani←▼Issa Boiro

Sampdoria U20 substitutes

ForteGioanniniPatrignani