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Sampdoria U19 vs Lazio U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sampdoria U19
Sampdoria U19
FT
1 – 1
Lazio U19
Lazio U19
9/27/2020Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 2Campo da Calcio Comunale R. Garrone

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sampdoria U1951%
×Draw23%
Lazio U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria U19
1.77
Lazio U19
1.18

Sampdoria U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sampdoria U19
1.76
Lazio U19
1.09

allows per match

Sampdoria U19
1.27
Lazio U19
1.79

finishing

Sampdoria U19+0.00on par
Lazio U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U19 ↓

Lazio U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sampdoria U19 or draw
75%
Sampdoria U19 or Lazio U19
77%
Draw or Lazio U19
49%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U19 wins by 2+
28%
Lazio U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sampdoria U19 1+ goals
83%
Sampdoria U19 2+ goals
53%
Sampdoria U19 3+ goals
26%
Lazio U19 1+ goals
69%
Lazio U19 2+ goals
33%
Lazio U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Lazio U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Lazio U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U19 attack 1.76 + Lazio U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lazio U19 attack 1.09 + Sampdoria U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sampdoria U19 scores more
51%
level
23%
Lazio U19 scores more
25%

Sampdoria U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sampdoria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sampdoria U19 1 – 1 Lazio U19

Sampdoria U19 and Lazio U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Campo da Calcio Comunale R. Garrone in Bogliasco Genoa.