Lazio U19 2–1 Sampdoria U19: Result & Stats

Lazio U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sampdoria U19

4/1/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 27Stadio Mirko Fersini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lazio U1938%

×Draw23%

Sampdoria U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lazio U19Expected goals in this matchSampdoria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.61

Lazio U19

1.60

Sampdoria U19

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 67 away

1.62

creates per match

1.54

1.68

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Lazio U19

1.62

Sampdoria U19

1.54

allows per match

Lazio U19

1.68

Sampdoria U19

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lazio U19+0.00on par

Sampdoria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio U19 ↓

Sampdoria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lazio U19 or draw

62%

Lazio U19 or Sampdoria U19

77%

Draw or Sampdoria U19

62%

Winning margin

Lazio U19 wins by 2+

19%

Sampdoria U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lazio U19 1+ goals

80%

Lazio U19 2+ goals

47%

Lazio U19 3+ goals

22%

Sampdoria U19 1+ goals

80%

Sampdoria U19 2+ goals

48%

Sampdoria U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Sampdoria U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio U19 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Sampdoria U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio U19 attack 1.62 + Sampdoria U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sampdoria U19 attack 1.54 + Lazio U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lazio U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

Sampdoria U19 scores more

38%

Lazio U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lazio U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff