Sampaio Correa 1–0 Oeste: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sampaio Correa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oeste

Marcinho 60'

1/29/2021

Serie B · Round 38Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Sampaio Correa52%

×Draw25%

Oeste23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchOeste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.93

Sampaio Correa

1.56

Oeste

0.93

Sampaio Correa creates 68% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 66 away

1.41

creates per match

0.95

0.91

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.41

Oeste

0.95

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

0.91

Oeste

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Oeste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

77%

Sampaio Correa or Oeste

75%

Draw or Oeste

48%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

27%

Oeste wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

79%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

46%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

21%

Oeste 1+ goals

61%

Oeste 2+ goals

24%

Oeste 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

70%

Oeste (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.71 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.41 + Oeste defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Oeste attack 0.95 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

52%

level

25%

Oeste scores more

23%

Sampaio Correa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Marcinho

Sampaio Correa · M

8.2

Match Events

44'

Allan

46'

Roni← Luis Gustavo

46'

Dione← Roney

60'

Marcinho

63'

Lucas Gonçalves← Welliton

64'

Lucas Ambiel← Joecio

64'

Ramon Soares← Diogo

64'

Luanderson← Tite

69'

Ferreira← André Luiz

83'

Gustavinho← Marcinho

86'

Kauã← Kalil

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampaioOeste

Overview

73%Possession27%

30Total Shots6

10Corners3

5Fouls12

Shots

30Total Shots6

8On Target1

15Off Target3

7Blocked2

15Inside Box4

15Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

588Total Passes210

522Accurate Passes137

89%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

5Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides4