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Sampaio Correa vs Oeste — Serie B 2026

Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Oeste
Oeste
6/9/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 10Estádio Governador João Castelo Ribeiro Gonçalves (São Luís, Maranhão)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Sampaio Correa52%
×Draw25%
Oeste23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampaio Correa
1.56
Oeste
0.93

Sampaio Correa creates 68% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sampaio Correa
1.41
Oeste
0.95

allows per match

Sampaio Correa
0.91
Oeste
1.71

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par
Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw
77%
Sampaio Correa or Oeste
75%
Draw or Oeste
48%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
27%
Oeste wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
79%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
46%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
21%
Oeste 1+ goals
61%
Oeste 2+ goals
24%
Oeste 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
70%
Oeste (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.71 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.41 + Oeste defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Oeste attack 0.95 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more
52%
level
25%
Oeste scores more
23%

Sampaio Correa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sampaio Correa vs Oeste

Sampaio Correa beat Oeste 2-0 in Serie B on June 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo Ribeiro Gonçalves (São Luís, Maranhão).