Sampaio Correa 1–3 Mirassol: Result & Stats

Sampaio Correa

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Mirassol

Alyson Neves 69'

Gabriel 80' (pen), 77' (pen)

Leandro Vilela 6'

4/29/2023

Serie B · Round 3Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sampaio Correa44%

×Draw29%

Mirassol27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampaio CorreaExpected goals in this matchMirassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.89

Sampaio Correa

1.22

Mirassol

0.89

Sampaio Correa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 38 away

1.41

creates per match

0.87

0.91

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Sampaio Correa

1.41

Mirassol

0.87

allows per match

Sampaio Correa

0.91

Mirassol

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Mirassol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Mirassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw

73%

Sampaio Correa or Mirassol

71%

Draw or Mirassol

56%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

19%

Mirassol wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

70%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

34%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

12%

Mirassol 1+ goals

59%

Mirassol 2+ goals

22%

Mirassol 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

62%

Mirassol (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Mirassol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.41 + Mirassol defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mirassol attack 0.87 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more

44%

level

29%

Mirassol scores more

27%

Sampaio Correa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Gabriel

Mirassol · F

8.3

Match Events

6'

14'

22'

31'

46'

Luiz Otávio← Emerson Souza

46'

Fernandinho← Chico

65'

Cristian← Kauan

65'

Rodrigo Sam← Leandro Vilela

69'

Alyson Neves

70'

Marcos Ytalo← Alyson Neves

74'

FernandinhoPenalty confirmed

75'

Marcinho

75'

Mateus Pivô

77'

GabrielPenalty

78'

Patrick Carvalho← Vinícius Alves

78'

Bill← Ytalo

80'

GabrielPenalty

81'

Cristian Renato

81'

Flávio← Reniê

85'

Rafael Vila← Marcinho

86'

Silvinho← Negueba

90+1'

Bill

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampaioMirassol

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots9

8Corners1

13Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked1

7Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

352Total Passes331

283Accurate Passes272

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls18

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1