Mirassol 0–0 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats

Mirassol

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sampaio Correa

8/5/2023

Serie B · Round 22Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mirassol54%

×Draw29%

Sampaio Correa17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirassolExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.60

Mirassol

1.32

Sampaio Correa

0.60

Mirassol creates 120% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 86 away

1.34

creates per match

0.74

0.47

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Mirassol

1.34

Sampaio Correa

0.74

allows per match

Mirassol

0.47

Sampaio Correa

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw

83%

Mirassol or Sampaio Correa

71%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

46%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+

26%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals

73%

Mirassol 2+ goals

38%

Mirassol 3+ goals

15%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

45%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

12%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)

76%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.47 · 38 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.34 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sampaio Correa attack 0.74 + Mirassol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mirassol scores more

54%

level

29%

Sampaio Correa scores more

17%

Mirassol at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Alex Muralha

Mirassol · G

8.2

Match Events

-5'

César

26'

Robinho

37'

Neto Moura

46'

Fernandinho← Neto Moura

46'

Matheus Martins← Henrique

56'

Paraíba

58'

Camilo← Chico

58'

Manoel← Guilherme Biro

59'

Julimar← Kauan

65'

Luiz Daniel

67'

Alyson Neves← Pará

75'

Matheusinho← Gabriel

76'

Matheus Pivô← Samuel Santos

76'

Gabriel Furtado← Mikael

83'

Alyson

86'

Maurício← Neto Paraíba

90+9'

Leandro Ferreira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirassolSampaio

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots9

0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.56

7Corners2

17Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots9

0On Target6

10Off Target2

3Blocked1

5Inside Box3

8Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

497Total Passes334

395Accurate Passes226

79%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls20

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides3

Serie B: Mirassol 0–0 Sampaio Correa

Mirassol and Sampaio Correa drew 0-0 in Serie B on August 5, 2023.

Mirassol controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, São Paulo.

Mirassol vs Sampaio Correa — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mirassol 0–0 Sampaio Correa