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Sampaio Correa vs Maranhão — League #608 2026

Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Maranhão
Maranhão
Emerson Carioca 85'
G. Furtado 71'
D. Mazerochi 56'
C. Peu 39'
Joelson 45'
Franklin 16'
1/18/2026League #608League #608 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sampaio Correa33%
×Draw25%
Maranhão42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampaio Correa
1.31
Maranhão
1.51

Maranhão creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sampaio Correa
1.53
Maranhão
1.55

allows per match

Sampaio Correa
1.47
Maranhão
1.09

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par
Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Maranhão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw
58%
Sampaio Correa or Maranhão
75%
Draw or Maranhão
67%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
14%
Maranhão wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
73%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
38%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
14%
Maranhão 1+ goals
78%
Maranhão 2+ goals
44%
Maranhão 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
44%
Maranhão (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Maranhão away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.53 + Maranhão defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Maranhão attack 1.55 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more
33%
level
25%
Maranhão scores more
42%

Maranhão at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Franklin
39'
C. Peu
45'
Joelson
56'
D. Mazerochi
71'
G. Furtado
85'
Emerson Carioca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sampaio Correa vs Maranhão

Sampaio Correa beat Maranhão 4-2 in League #608 on January 18, 2026.

Goals: Franklin (16'), C. Peu (39'), Joelson (45'), D. Mazerochi (56'), G. Furtado (71'), Emerson Carioca (85').