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Maranhão vs Sampaio Correa — Serie D 2026

Maranhão
Maranhão
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
Dudu 63'
Clessione 42'
6/28/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Maranhão50%
×Draw28%
Sampaio Correa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranhão
1.37
Sampaio Correa
0.83

Maranhão creates 65% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

creates per match

Maranhão
1.81
Sampaio Correa
0.79

allows per match

Maranhão
0.88
Sampaio Correa
0.93

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par
Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 62Over: 3862%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Sampaio Correa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw
77%
Maranhão or Sampaio Correa
72%
Draw or Sampaio Correa
50%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+
24%
Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals
75%
Maranhão 2+ goals
40%
Maranhão 3+ goals
16%
Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
56%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
20%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)
69%
Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.81 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sampaio Correa attack 0.79 + Maranhão defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Maranhão scores more
50%
level
28%
Sampaio Correa scores more
23%

Maranhão at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
Clessione
63'
Dudu
Maranhão
Sampaio
Marcinho Guerreiro
Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro
Zé Augusto
Manager: Zé Augusto

Match Recap: Maranhão vs Sampaio Correa

Maranhão beat Sampaio Correa 2-0 in Serie D on June 28, 2025.

Goals: Clessione (42'), Dudu (63').

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.