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Sampaio Correa vs Ituano — Serie B 2026

Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ituano
Ituano
7/15/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 17Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sampaio Correa48%
×Draw27%
Ituano25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampaio Correa
1.43
Ituano
0.95

Sampaio Correa creates 51% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sampaio Correa
1.36
Ituano
0.96

allows per match

Sampaio Correa
0.94
Ituano
1.49

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par
Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Ituano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw
75%
Sampaio Correa or Ituano
73%
Draw or Ituano
52%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
24%
Ituano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
76%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
42%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
17%
Ituano 1+ goals
61%
Ituano 2+ goals
25%
Ituano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
66%
Ituano (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 95 matches

Ituano away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.36 + Ituano defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ituano attack 0.96 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more
48%
level
27%
Ituano scores more
25%

Sampaio Correa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Sampaio Correa 0–0 Ituano

Sampaio Correa and Ituano drew 0-0 in Serie B on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.