Ituano 2–1 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ituano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sampaio Correa

11/11/2023

Serie B · Round 36Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ituano45%

×Draw30%

Sampaio Correa25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItuanoExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.82

Ituano

1.20

Sampaio Correa

0.82

Ituano creates 46% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 95 away

1.11

creates per match

0.77

0.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ituano

1.11

Sampaio Correa

0.77

allows per match

Ituano

0.88

Sampaio Correa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ituano or draw

75%

Ituano or Sampaio Correa

70%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

55%

Winning margin

Ituano wins by 2+

20%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ituano 1+ goals

70%

Ituano 2+ goals

34%

Ituano 3+ goals

12%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

56%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

20%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ituano (draw refunded)

64%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.29 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano attack 1.11 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sampaio Correa attack 0.77 + Ituano defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ituano scores more

45%

level

30%

Sampaio Correa scores more

25%

Ituano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ituano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff