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Sampaio Correa vs Imperatriz — Serie D 2026

Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Imperatriz
Imperatriz
Wesley 64'
Lucas Campos 58' (OG)
Pedro Dias 45'
7/5/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sampaio Correa53%
×Draw28%
Imperatriz20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampaio Correa
1.39
Imperatriz
0.73

Sampaio Correa creates 90% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sampaio Correa
1.50
Imperatriz
0.81

allows per match

Sampaio Correa
0.64
Imperatriz
1.27

finishing

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par
Imperatriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 61Yes: 3961%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampaio Correa ↓

Imperatriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sampaio Correa or draw
80%
Sampaio Correa or Imperatriz
72%
Draw or Imperatriz
47%

Winning margin

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
26%
Imperatriz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
75%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
40%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
16%
Imperatriz 1+ goals
52%
Imperatriz 2+ goals
17%
Imperatriz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
73%
Imperatriz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Imperatriz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampaio Correa attack 1.50 + Imperatriz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Imperatriz attack 0.81 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sampaio Correa scores more
53%
level
28%
Imperatriz scores more
20%

Sampaio Correa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Pedro Dias
58'
Lucas CamposOwn goal
64'
Wesley
Sampaio
Imperatriz
Zé Augusto
Manager: Zé Augusto
Paulinho Kobayashi
Manager: Paulinho Kobayashi

Match Recap: Sampaio Correa vs Imperatriz

Sampaio Correa beat Imperatriz 3-0 in Serie D on July 5, 2025.

Goals: Pedro Dias (45'), Lucas Campos (58' o.g.), Wesley (64').

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.