Imperatriz 1–0 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats

Imperatriz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sampaio Correa

Wyldson 27'

5/10/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Frei Epifânio D'Abadia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Imperatriz49%

×Draw29%

Sampaio Correa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImperatrizExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.76

Imperatriz

1.29

Sampaio Correa

0.76

Imperatriz creates 70% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

1.66

creates per match

0.79

0.72

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Imperatriz

1.66

Sampaio Correa

0.79

allows per match

Imperatriz

0.72

Sampaio Correa

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imperatriz+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imperatriz ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Imperatriz or draw

78%

Imperatriz or Sampaio Correa

71%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

51%

Winning margin

Imperatriz wins by 2+

23%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Imperatriz 1+ goals

72%

Imperatriz 2+ goals

37%

Imperatriz 3+ goals

14%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

53%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

18%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Imperatriz (draw refunded)

69%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imperatriz at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imperatriz attack 1.66 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sampaio Correa attack 0.79 + Imperatriz defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Imperatriz scores more

49%

level

29%

Sampaio Correa scores more

22%

Imperatriz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Imperatriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Wyldson

Imperatriz

Sampaio

⚽

Manager: Paulinho Kobayashi

Imperatriz substitutes

PapelXinayderFreitasÍcaroRonnyConceiçãoGleidsonSousaRaylsonJúniorSantos

Manager: Zé Augusto

Sampaio Correa substitutes

RecifeEricVictorHalloweenThiaguinhoHugoEduardoEvangelistaJairHianWadson

Serie D: Imperatriz 1–0 Sampaio Correa

Imperatriz beat Sampaio Correa 1-0 in Serie D on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Wyldson (27').

The match was played at Estádio Frei Epifânio D'Abadia in Imperatriz, Maranhão.

Imperatriz vs Sampaio Correa — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Imperatriz 1–0 Sampaio Correa