Samgurali 1–1 Shevardeni 1906: Result & Stats

Samgurali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shevardeni 1906

Z. Goguadze 45+1'

B. Bibilashvili 18' (OG)

10/19/2018

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 28Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Samgurali52%

×Draw28%

Shevardeni 190620%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamguraliExpected goals in this matchShevardeni 1906

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.73

Samgurali

1.37

Shevardeni 1906

0.73

Samgurali creates 88% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 51 away

1.13

creates per match

1.08

0.38

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Samgurali

1.13

Shevardeni 1906

1.08

allows per match

Samgurali

0.38

Shevardeni 1906

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samgurali+0.00on par

Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Samgurali or draw

80%

Samgurali or Shevardeni 1906

72%

Draw or Shevardeni 1906

48%

Winning margin

Samgurali wins by 2+

25%

Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Samgurali 1+ goals

75%

Samgurali 2+ goals

40%

Samgurali 3+ goals

16%

Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals

52%

Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals

17%

Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Samgurali (draw refunded)

72%

Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samgurali at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali attack 1.13 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.08 + Samgurali defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Samgurali scores more

52%

level

28%

Shevardeni 1906 scores more

20%

Samgurali at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

B. BibilashviliOwn goal

28'

T. Kharabadze← N. Shalamberidze

45+1'

Z. Goguadze

46'

L. Nanobashvili← I. Goginashvili

58'

R. Salukvadze← V. Nemsadze

67'

L. Liparteliani← G. Saghrishvili

77'

M. Megreladze← G. Gogatishvili

78'

M. Ghonghadze← G. Chkhetiani

Samgurali

Shevardeni

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: B. Khatchiperadze

28'▲T. Kharabadze←▼N. Shalamberidze

67'▲L. Liparteliani←▼G. Saghrishvili

78'▲M. Ghonghadze←▼G. Chkhetiani

Samgurali substitutes

KharabadzeLipartelianiGhonghadzePantskhavaEndeladzeGogichaishviliKakushadze

Manager: G. Sanaia

46'▲L. Nanobashvili←▼I. Goginashvili

58'▲R. Salukvadze←▼V. Nemsadze

77'▲M. Megreladze←▼G. Gogatishvili

Shevardeni 1906 substitutes

NanobashviliSalukvadzeMegreladzeOdikadzeJikiaNarimanidzeKontselidze

Match Recap: Samgurali vs Shevardeni 1906

Samgurali and Shevardeni 1906 drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 19, 2018.

Goals: B. Bibilashvili (18' o.g.), Z. Goguadze (45+1').

The match was played at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava in Martvili.

Samgurali vs Shevardeni 1906 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Samgurali vs Shevardeni 1906