Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Samgurali vs Shevardeni 1906 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samgurali
Samgurali
CANC
11:00
Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
9/21/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Samgurali56%
×Draw26%
Shevardeni 190618%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samgurali
1.52
Shevardeni 1906
0.73

Samgurali creates 108% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 48 away

creates per match

Samgurali
1.33
Shevardeni 1906
1.13

allows per match

Samgurali
0.33
Shevardeni 1906
1.71

finishing

Samgurali+0.00on par
Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Samgurali or draw
82%
Samgurali or Shevardeni 1906
74%
Draw or Shevardeni 1906
44%

Winning margin

Samgurali wins by 2+
29%
Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Samgurali 1+ goals
78%
Samgurali 2+ goals
45%
Samgurali 3+ goals
20%
Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
52%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
17%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Samgurali (draw refunded)
76%
Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samgurali at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali attack 1.33 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.13 + Samgurali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Samgurali scores more
56%
level
26%
Shevardeni 1906 scores more
18%

Samgurali at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Samgurali vs Shevardeni 1906 — Match Preview

Samgurali face Shevardeni 1906 on September 21, 2020 in this Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.